Last week, oil and soybeans experienced adjustments, and the market once again recognized the bubble in the cotton market. How many bubbles are there in the cotton market?
Cotton oil: It’s cold at high places
Since late September, the price of Aksu third-grade cottonseed oil has risen from 5,700 yuan/ton to 6,950 yuan/ton. It is currently fluctuating around 6,600 yuan/ton, which is due to the surge in related oils such as rapeseed oil, palm oil, and soybean oil. But at the current price, the market is under severe pressure. From last week to this week, futures prices in the oil and fat sector have fallen sharply, and the cottonseed oil spot market has almost come to a standstill.
Even with reference to the 2019/20 cottonseed oil price range of 5,000-5,500 yuan/ton, the current cottonseed oil price is still too high. Taking 6,500 yuan/ton as the benchmark, it is currently difficult to rise and easy to fall.
Cotton husk: look at the comparison of supply and demand and market atmosphere
As a “fairy” variety, cotton husk has been priced at 3,000 yuan/ton, 300 yuan/ton The price per ton has changed, and the key depends on the comparison of supply and demand and market atmosphere. Price increases must be out of stock, and increased inventory will inevitably lead to price decreases. Especially in the later part of the year, if there are too many cotton hulls in stock or too many oil plants are operating, the price of cotton hulls is unlikely to increase. According to the current processing progress of Xinjiang oil plants, there will be no shortage of seed cotton stocks in the second half of next year, and the price pressure on cotton hulls will be great.
Last year, the opening scale price was 550 yuan/ton, and the opening scale price in southern Xinjiang was 700 yuan/ton. In recent years, the lowest price in northern Xinjiang was 300 yuan/ton, and in southern Xinjiang was 380 yuan/ton. According to the current price in southern Xinjiang, it is 1,100 yuan/ton. Ton, North Xinjiang is 1,000 yuan/ton, and it is not new that the price has returned to last year.
Cotton meal: must fall below the price/performance ratio
The current price of Xinjiang cotton meal is relatively high during the same period in previous years. This is supported by demand, meal support, and cost. The result of the synergy of support, but it couldn’t be sold after the price spree. There is basically no immediate demand for cotton meal in the early part of the year, and consumption must be started based on the cost-effectiveness of soybean meal. However, the market price of cotton meal is too high. The cost-effectiveness of cotton meal and soybean meal is limited to the northwest region, and demand in other regions cannot be started. This directly causes Xinjiang cottonseed and cotton meal are unsalable.
Recently, cotton meal has dropped from 2,800 yuan/ton back to 2,400 yuan/ton. Market demand has basically started, but logistics has become the biggest constraint. According to the current digestion progress of cottonseed and cottonseed in Xinjiang, the stock of cottonseed and cottonmeal after the new year will be the largest in recent years, and the digestion of cottonseed after the new year will face the limitation of shrinking processing capacity. For the next year, on the one hand, the processing period is getting shorter and shorter, and the processing capacity is getting smaller and smaller; on the other hand, there is a large amount of cottonseed and cotton meal waiting to be digested. The price of cotton meal is not optimistic after the new year. It mainly depends on the trend of soybean meal, but it will face a situation where it is difficult to rise but easy to fall.
Cottonseed: base price refers to last year
In addition to the foam of downstream products, cottonseed also has its own foam, with high cost, slow digestion, large amount of seed cotton, and Kashgar has not yet start up. The current situation of cottonseed is that oil mills are afraid to purchase cottonseed at a loss. After the cottonseed purchased by the oil mill is converted into cottonseed meal, the cottonseed meal cannot be sold. Shandong oil mills and ranches are also shunned by the high price of cottonseed. After the new year, once the supply of cotton meal exceeds the demand, the usage of pastures will be limited, and the processing capacity of oil plants will be hindered, and the price will easily break through. Last year, the lowest price in northern Xinjiang was 1,600 yuan/ton, and the price in northern Xinjiang was 1,600 yuan/ton. This is the reference level for the decline of cottonseed this year.
The current overall pattern of the cotton market is that risks outweigh returns, and the market outlook is not very optimistic. There is a high probability of a fall in cotton prices after the year. For oil companies, the safest strategy is to watch as they go, leaving no positions, and stopping when necessary; the radical strategy is to keep operating and look for opportunities; while pursuing small profits, increasing inventory, and ignoring risks should not be a business enterprise Options. </p
