At the beginning of December, Zheng Mian still had no outstanding performance and continued to fluctuate in a narrow range. From the technical curve, there was obviously insufficient downward and upward momentum. The adjustment has not yet ended. We look forward to the later direction choice, but the author believes that the probability of upward is relatively high. Of course, the impact of the “black swan” event cannot be ruled out, causing cotton prices to plummet. Whether it rises or falls depends on the actual market trend.
The future Sino-US economic and trade relations will still have an important impact on cotton prices. Although China’s exports of textile and clothing products to the United States have declined in the past two years, the absolute quantity cannot be underestimated. In particular, the United States is in a critical period of presidential transition, and the continuation or change of policies will guide the market to some extent.
On December 2, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection stated that it would ban the import of cotton and its products from the Xinjiang Corps. This news is nothing new. Since last year, relevant arguments have begun to spread. The large decline in the domestic market in the morning may be related to the release of this news, but from the perspective of the afternoon market, the impact is limited, because this is not a new incident, but continues to be a hot topic. How big the subsequent impact will be depends on the intensity and scope of implementation.
Originally, the market expected that the rotation of reserve cotton would support the cotton market, but unfortunately the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton was too large, exceeding the rotation standard, resulting in the delay in starting the rotation. We can only wait for the price difference to return in the future. Whether the price difference will return in the future, I think it is certainly possible. Now that the domestic epidemic has been brought under control, the domestic sales market has gradually recovered, and the domestic cotton market is stronger than abroad. As long as the global epidemic is under control, this situation will be corrected, and it may even lead to a situation of internal weakness and external strength.
Many institutions predict that 2021 will be the year of the commodity bull market. The author disagrees. We will discuss whether it is a bull market when the time comes. It is very important to get out of the current predicament first. In the future, the market with the same opinion will go very bumpy. If there are too many people getting on the bus, naturally many people will get off, because the market is limited, the funds are limited, and people’s desires are unlimited. Now Zheng Mian continues to adjust the range. When can it reach a higher level? All we can do is wait and see, waiting for the answer from downstream consumption. </p
