In August 2023, the polyester market was operating steadily, market prices and profitability levels both rebounded, and the industry as a whole was still in a destocking cycle. Entering September, the rigid demand for polyester downstream will continue to improve. The shipping pressure of polyester factories is relatively small. Superimposed on the upstream raw material market, the upstream raw material market may operate in a narrow and strong direction. Under the influence of cost drivers, it is expected that the polyester market may still show volume and price in September. The pattern of rising together.
In August 2023, the polyester market price fluctuated strongly. The largest downstream textile market in the polyester market has seen a mild rebound in demand, and the other downstream soft drink packaging market is still in the traditional consumption peak season. In addition, with the “Golden Nine” approaching, subsequent downstream demand is expected to be good, so polyester factories still maintain high operating loads, and the industry Inventory pressure is relatively small. In September, the main downstream textile market demand for polyester is expected to improve, and the operating load of polyester may fall slightly. The supply and demand pattern of the polyester market is expected to further improve. At the same time, the cost-promoting effect in September is relatively strong, which will jointly promote the warming of the polyester market.
In August, polyester market prices and profitability both rebounded
In August, although new polyester production capacity continued to be released, cost drivers and the moderate recovery of downstream demand jointly stimulated downstream factories to purchase appropriate amounts of raw materials, driving both polyester market prices and profits to rebound. According to Zhuochuang Information statistics, the polyester market’s new production capacity in July was 1.46 million tons/year, and the polyester market’s new production capacity in August was 1 million tons/year, which was only lower than the number of new polyester production in March. The polyester market supply is growing. More obvious. However, in August, the international oil price first rose and then fell, and the early increase was relatively obvious, while the polyester raw material PTA market first declined and then rose, the center of gravity of the monthly average price moved upward, and cost drivers strengthened. In addition, although polyester downstream textile and apparel exports were under pressure in August, domestic textile and apparel demand recovered moderately. The number of undelivered orders for weaving factories in August increased slightly by about 3 days compared with July. As of August 29, the average monthly comprehensive weaving start-up The rate also increased slightly by 1.6 percentage points from July. Affected by this, polyester factories actively followed the increase in raw materials in August. The price fluctuations in the polyester market were relatively strong, and industry profitability recovered moderately.
In August, the pattern of high operating load and low inventory of polyester continued
In August, downstream demand for polyester recovered moderately, and polyester factories maintained high operating loads and low inventory. As of August 29, the main downstream polyester texturing and weaving monthly average operating rates increased by 1.6 percentage points and 1.78 percentage points respectively from the previous month, and the yarn operating load rate increased by 1.8 percentage points from the previous month. In early August, autumn and winter orders in the domestic textile and apparel market started slowly. In mid-to-late August, a small amount of spring and summer orders in the foreign trade textile market were issued, which jointly promoted the steady increase in the start-up rate of water-jet, warp knitting and circular knitting machines in the weaving market. In addition, cost-driven factors strengthened in August, and market expectations for September improved. Therefore, downstream factories were more enthusiastic about stocking raw materials in August. Some factories stocked up to late September, and most factories stocked up to mid-to-early September. Affected by this, the inventory of polyester and polyester factories did not show significant accumulation, while the downstream polyester and PET factories were in the traditional consumption peak season, with slight destocking in August. According to statistics from Zhuochuang Information, as of August 29, the polyester filament factory has been in inventory for 1.17 days, the polyester staple fiber factory has been in inventory for 1.1 days, the polyester chip factory has been in inventory for 2.4 days, and the polyester bottle flake factory has been in inventory for 0.37 days. Overall, It seems that polyester factory inventories are still at reasonable levels. In addition to the low inventory pressure, the Asian Games will be held in September, and there may be some room for decline in the load of polyester plants in some polyester factories, which will also encourage polyester factories to maintain high operating loads in August.
Downstream demand for polyester is expected to pick up in September, and polyester factories will destock again
The recovery of good orders in polyester downstream demand in September is expected to support the destocking of polyester factories, and the supply and demand structure of the polyester market is expected to further improve. In September, China’s increased macroeconomic policies boosted expectations for China’s economic recovery. Recently, many national ministries and commissions have made it clear that they will further support new infrastructure investment, and many places across the country are also giving full support to accelerate the implementation of policies. In addition, various places have also successively introduced policies and measures to support the development of the private economy to reduce burdens on enterprises, find funds, reduce costs, and integrate the private economy. As the subject of policy benefits. Favorable macroeconomic policies are expected to further drive the recovery of domestic consumption in September. In addition, domestic textile market demand will improve significantly in September. Since mid-August, foreign trade textile orders have been slowly issued. Most weaving factories said that the number of new orders in the market is increasing. Some weaving factories said that some varieties can be completed in the middle and late fourth quarter. Since the end of August, in the domestic market, the shipment speed of fabrics such as pongee and peach skin from water-jet looms, super-soft, plain cloth, flannel and other fabrics from warp knitting machines, and jersey and other fabrics from circular knitting machines has increased. Inventories of conventional weaving gray fabrics declined. Superimposed on the Double Eleven orders for the domestic market in early September, orders for popular domestic shopping festivals and spring and summer textile orders for foreign trade will also be issued one after another. It is expected that demand in the main downstream textile market for polyester will improve significantly in September, texturing and weaving start-up rates will continue to rebound, and undelivered orders for weaving will also increase compared with August. The other downstream soft drink packaging of polyester will enter the end of the peak season. It is expected that the operating load of downstream soft drink factories of polyester may decrease slightly. Influenced by Xiaoshan areaDepending on the impact of the shutdown and relocation of polyester factories, the polyester production load in September will be slightly lower than that in August. Because the trends in polyester and downstream production are out of sync in September, and only 300,000 tons of polyester bottle flake equipment is scheduled to be put into operation in September, polyester factories may destock again in September, and the polyester market price will have bottom support.
Cost-driven in September, polyester market prices may be warmer
The market price of polyester raw materials may be strong in September. In addition, international crude oil market prices may show high fluctuations in September. Although it faces certain correction pressure in the short term, after the crude oil price falls, it will still resume a volatile and strong market trend. At the same time, the market price of polyester raw material PTA may rise in September under the expectation of strong crude oil operation and stable demand, and the average monthly price in September may be higher than that in August. Overall, the cost push effect in September is relatively strong, which may push the polyester market price to run warmer.
Overall, polyester market prices may continue to rise in September. The macro outlook in September is warmer, and international crude oil may be more volatile, and the polyester raw material PTA market may rise, with cost-driven factors increasing. In addition, the polyester market supply growth may slow down, downstream demand will gradually recover, and the supply and demand pattern is expected to further improve. Affected by this, the overall operation of the polyester market in September was relatively stable, and the probability of a stable increase in polyester market prices was high.
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