Insufficient terminal recovery expectations may drag down the rise of polyester filament

Introduction: Recently, the cost side of polyester has been supported by high levels, and the demand side has gradually recovered. Weaving and polyester filament companies have sho…

Introduction: Recently, the cost side of polyester has been supported by high levels, and the demand side has gradually recovered. Weaving and polyester filament companies have shown a trend of destocking. Multiple benefits have not led to a surge in polyester filament yarns. This mainly depends on the market’s lack of confidence in the recovery of future demand side orders. .

cost support

As the weather turns colder after the summer vacation and travel and air-conditioning oil use declines, the demand side of international crude oil weakens. In the short term, there are rumors that Saudi Arabia may extend additional production cuts until October. European diesel stocks have dropped significantly, and the supply side is relatively strong. International crude oil It is expected that there will be support in the short term, and the PX end will still have support due to the positive Asian gasoline market, supporting the PX market. PTA has a volatile trend under the support of high polyester production, and polyester raw materials are generally supported.

Polyester filament supply high position

It is understood that the current capacity utilization rate of the polyester filament industry remains at around 86%. In the short term, a 360,000-ton polyester filament device in Xinfengming Xinyi has been put into production. At present, although some small devices have been converted to full matt and glossy As production capacity increases, supply continues to increase. However, from August to mid-September, polyester filament supply generally maintained a high level of operation. Enterprise inventories this week fell slightly compared with last week. As of August 24, POY factories The inventory lasts for 12.3 days, -5.38% from the previous period; FDY factory inventory lasts for 17.8 days, -2.73% from the previous period; DTY inventory lasts for 24 days, -1.64% from the previous period. The overall performance of polyester filament factory production and sales during the week was acceptable, and the production and sales volume of enterprises increased on Monday. Finished product inventories at some polyester filament factories fell slightly during the week.

Source: Longzhong Information

Demand recovery is more cautious

Comparison chart of woven finished product inventory and order days from 2021 to 2023

Source: Longzhong Information

According to statistical data, as of August 24, the average inventory level of terminal woven products (long fiber cloth) was 30 days, a decrease of 2.38 days from last week, and a month-on-month decrease of 7.35%. Compared with the lowest inventory level of 28.1 days in February in the year, an increase of 6.76% compared with the highest inventory level of 36 days in mid-July of the year, a decrease of 16.67%. Since mid-August, winter orders for domestic and foreign trade have gradually heated up, and the inventory of finished gray fabrics in the factory has declined slightly. Overall, There is a trend of destocking. However, there is still a big gap compared with previous years. The reason is that the weaving inventory is low. On the one hand, some areas in Zhejiang consider that during the Asian Games in September, the start of some finishing industries may be affected, and the demand is front-loaded. On the other hand, the downstream demand There is no confidence that the single volume of the gold, silver, and silver markets will recover in the future. In order to ensure the amount of funds in the later period, the main focus is to clear the warehouse.

In general, polyester cost support is still there, and polyester filament can still maintain low inventory despite high supply, which is the main factor supporting the market price of polyester filament. Coupled with the gradual recovery of the current demand side, the future market is mostly bullish, but the terminal “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” “The lack of expected recovery in unit volume has dragged down the confidence in the polyester filament market, and the market is expected to be strong and volatile.

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Author: clsrich