According to feedback from cotton traders in Qingdao, Zhangjiagang, Shanghai and other places, the main ICE cotton futures contract this week has continuously exceeded 85 cents/pound, 88 cents/pound, and is close to 90 cents/pound. Most traders have not adjusted cargo, Bonded cotton quotation basis; while the Zheng Cotton CF2305 contract price continues to consolidate in the range of 13,500-14,000 yuan/ton, resulting in a significantly wider range of domestic and foreign cotton price inversions than before mid-November and December, coupled with the 2022 cotton import quotas in the hands of enterprises It has been basically exhausted or it is difficult to successfully “break through” with temporary purchases (the sliding tariff quota is valid until the end of December). Therefore, foreign cotton shipments quoted in US dollars at the port are currently relatively deserted, and some traders have not even opened for two or three consecutive days. .
According to customs statistics, general trade accounted for 75% of my country’s cotton import trade in November, down 10 percentage points from October; inbound and outbound goods at bonded supervision sites accounted for 14%, up 8 percentage points from the previous month; special customs supervision areas Logistics goods accounted for 9%, an increase of 2 percentage points from the previous month. It can be seen that in the past two months, imports under sliding quasi-tariff quotas and processing trade imports have shown phased growth. Due to the relatively large shipment volume of Brazilian cotton to the Chinese market in September/October, it is also in the lean period of US cotton supply; coupled with bonded and ship cargo, the quotation basis of Brazilian cotton in 2022 is 2-4 cents/pound lower than the same indicator of US cotton. , cost-effective, therefore Brazilian cotton exports to China showed strong growth in November and December, leaving US cotton behind.
A cotton company in Zhangjiagang said that in recent days, cotton spinning mills/middlemen in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Henan, Anhui and other places have made inquiries and received goods for cotton spot goods at the port. The enthusiasm has dropped significantly compared with early and mid-December. In addition to the increase in ICE futures and the lack of quotas, In addition, it is also related to the recent increase in the number of employees infected with COVID-19 in many cotton spinning mills and weaving companies, the severe job vacancies, which have led to a decrease in the company’s operating rate, and the tightening of capital flows of cotton-using companies near the end of the year, and the intensification of finished product destocking. Furthermore, the RMB exchange rate has recently changed from appreciation to depreciation, and the cost of imported foreign cotton continues to rise. As of December 19, compared with the last trading day in November, the central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate in December increased by 2,023 basis points as a whole, once regaining the 7.0 integer mark.