Since last Thursday, PTA prices have continued to rise. As of December 14, the negotiated price of PTA was 5,280-5,300 yuan/ton. Commodity markets are strengthening in the short term.
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
From the supply side: As of December 13, the domestic PTA operating rate remained at 65.45%. PTA processing fees have fluctuated greatly recently. Due to the pause in the decline of PX, PTA processing fees have remained around 300-500 yuan/ton. Factory efficiency is poor, and the number of equipment maintenance and shutdowns has increased. Affected by economics, Yisheng Petrochemical’s 2 million-ton PTA unit, Yisheng Petrochemical’s 2.25-million-ton unit and Hengli Petrochemical’s PTA2# 2.2-million-ton unit plan to continue to shut down in January; Yisheng New Materials’ 6.6 million-ton unit will be shut down on December 2 The load of nearby Fuhaichuang 4.5 million tons unit was reduced to 50% from December 1; the load of Dushan Energy’s 4.4 million ton unit was reduced to 80% on December 9; Sichuan Energy Investment lost power due to a malfunction on December 9 Shut down, the 750,000-ton unit of Yadong Petrochemical was heated up and restarted on December 13; a new 2.5 million-ton PTA unit of Weilian Chemical was put into operation on November 28, and qualified products were produced in early December. It is currently operating at about 50%; Zhuhai Ineos 110 The 10,000-ton unit is scheduled to be restarted at the end of December. The unit will be inspected on November 26. The 2.2 million-ton unit of Jiaxing Petrochemical is scheduled to be shut down for inspection at the end of December. The estimated time is 15-20 days. The operating rate of PTA equipment is at a low level, and the contradiction between supply and demand has eased in the short term, boosting the PTA market to a certain extent. However, with the expected start-up of new equipment in the later period, PTA output is expected to increase significantly, resulting in greater mid- to long-term supply pressure.
From the demand side: the current comprehensive operating rate of domestic polyester is 72.16%, down 10 percentage points from the same period in previous years. Downstream polyester production has been reduced, and procurement has maintained rigid demand. Among them, the comprehensive operating rate of polyester filament is 64.71%, the comprehensive operating rate of polyester short fiber is 78.01%, the comprehensive operating rate of bottle-grade PET is 84.04%, and the comprehensive operating rate of fiber-grade PET is 88.02%. The comprehensive operating rate of weaving remains at around 49%, which is slightly higher than the operating rate some time ago. End-use textile and apparel orders have improved and production has recovered. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, the start-up of the textile industry will decline, and the sustainability of demand improvement will be limited, resulting in weak PTA price increases.
To sum up: under the combined effect of supply reduction and periodic improvement in demand, PTA’s short-term strong pattern is expected to continue. However, in the long term, the contradiction between supply and demand is weak, the market has a bearish mentality, and the PTA market may be weak.