Introduction: Since October, the domestic PTA market has continued its downward trend, and the overall negotiation atmosphere has been poor. Spot prices in East China fell from 6,350 yuan/ton on October 8 to 5,880 yuan/ton on October 25, a decrease of 7.40%. Recently, the main PTA factory equipment has been undergoing maintenance and load reduction operations, and new equipment is expected to be put into production. Where will the PTA market go in the future?
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
Since October, the domestic PTA market has continued its downward trend, and the overall negotiation atmosphere has been poor. Spot prices in East China fell from 6,350 yuan/ton on October 8 to 5,880 yuan/ton on October 25, a decrease of 7.40%. The reasons for this round of decline are, on the one hand, the impact on the cost side. Investors’ concerns about high inflation, economic recession and declining energy demand have led to lower oil prices. The weakening on the cost side has led to a simultaneous decline in the PTA market.
On the other hand, due to the influence of its own supply and demand, since October, the load reduction devices of PTA factories have been restored one after another, and the operating rate has returned to more than 78%. The increase in supply has lost support for PTA prices. At the same time, the downstream demand performance is average, and only necessary replenishment is maintained. Mainly, the fundamentals of supply and demand have not been significantly positive, and PTA prices are mainly weak.
As far as the recent market is concerned, as the 2.2 million tons unit of Hengli Petrochemical No. 2 was carried out for maintenance on the 25th, and the 6.6 million tons PTA unit of Yisheng New Materials was reduced to 80% of the operating load, the supply volume shrank again, and the current downstream gathering The start-up of ester and weaving continues to be stable, and the futures-to-cash basis continues to be at a high level. In October, the transaction basis of the main port in East China was 580-600 yuan/ton, in mid-November, the transaction basis was 450 yuan/ton, and at the end of November, the transaction basis was 250 yuan. /Ton.
However, the fourth quarter is the window period for the PTA industry to put into production. It is reported that PTA will put into operation a new 7.5 million tons plant in November. As PTA overcapacity has become an industry consensus, supply pressure may continue to increase. In addition, new equipment for raw material PX has been put into operation with great efforts. For example, Shenghong Refining and Chemical’s 2 million-ton unit produced qualified products on October 26, Weilian Chemical’s second-phase 1-million-ton unit is expected to be put into operation in mid-to-late November, and Guangdong Petrochemical’s 2.6-million-ton unit is expected to be put into operation. It is expected to be put into production in December.
Therefore, given the poor performance of terminal demand, the early Lunar New Year, and insufficient support after November, the PTA market lacks substantial positive support. Although PTA’s current fundamentals are still good, the market has strong expectations for a weakening supply and demand pattern in the later period.
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