A drop in the bucket is not enough, polyester filament may continue to be weak.

Some time ago, the polyester raw material market led by oil prices was booming, but recently, PTA can only be described as miserable: due to the fluctuation of raw material trends,…

Some time ago, the polyester raw material market led by oil prices was booming, but recently, PTA can only be described as miserable: due to the fluctuation of raw material trends, polyester factories have also begun to increase prices slightly and return to price reduction promotions. , overall production and sales are still weak, lower than expected. As inventory pressure increases, the decline gradually turns from dark to bright.

Since the beginning of this year, there has been no concentrated increase in demand for terminal textiles. Even during the traditional peak season of “Golden September and Silver Ten”, the terminal order volume is far less than the same period in previous years. However, after the National Day holiday, the epidemic has a recurring trend, and residential demand for non-essential varieties Gradually declining, polyester filament yarn has not been destocked during the peak season. On the contrary, due to the rapid growth of new production capacity in recent years, the contradiction between market supply and demand has been highlighted, and the inventory of polyester filament manufacturers has reached a high point during the year.

As usual, the sales of polyester filament DTY are good in autumn and winter. As the main raw material for winter clothing, the demand for elastic yarn has picked up in September in previous years, and corporate inventories have also dropped to the lowest level in the year. During the same period, cash flow has also been at a high level during the year. However, At present, elastic yarn prices have continued to decline since the second half of the year, cash flow has been continuously compressed, and the power restriction policy has forced the industry’s operating rate to drop to around 60%. At the end of the third quarter, with the end of the power restriction policy, the turn-on rate of texturing increased slightly. However, the overall turn-on rate currently remains at 60-70%, and some small and medium-sized texturing manufacturers are still in parking or low-load operation mode. Specifically, as of October 13, the comprehensive operating rate of texturing machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 68.6%, a decrease of 3.6% from last week. At the end of the National Day holiday, driven by the cost side, the price of polyester filament rose, and the price of elastic yarn also rose slightly. The enthusiasm of texturing factories to start operations increased. Then the terminal demand gradually declined after the holiday. Early orders were delivered one after another, and some texturing manufacturers’ orders have gradually been reduced. However, the willingness to produce inventory at the end of the year is not strong, so after the holiday, small texturing plants have reduced their load.

From the perspective of the weaving market, most companies are currently barely maintaining production in the face of insufficient orders. Although the rigid demand for textile clothing in the fourth quarter still needs to be expected, under the pessimistic expectation of “more monks and less rice”, it is estimated that the actual orders received will be limited, and some orders will be limited. Companies make early holiday plans. At present, domestic clothing companies generally report that it is more difficult to receive orders. In the early stage, domestic manufacturers who mainly focused on foreign trade also turned to the domestic market. However, the domestic market share is limited, and terminal purchasing power continues to decline. The actual inventory of clothing companies is relatively high, and the market is relatively pessimistic. .

Taken together, the recent market transactions have been deserted, and the early demand for fabrics has also declined recently. Although the upstream textile raw materials are discounted and the volume is increased, most downstream users choose to wait and see cautiously. On the one hand, the consumption of raw materials is reduced due to market constraints, and on the other hand, downstream users are stocking up in advance. The usage is on the low side, so most people choose to consume the inventory on hand instead of rushing to replenish their positions. Finished product inventories have risen slightly again due to weak market conditions. Overall, the apparel weaving industry has insufficient orders and low operating rates, resulting in periodic replenishment of polyester stocks insufficient to boost prices. The cost side will fluctuate or decline in the short term in the future, which may be the general trend. In addition, the demand side is flat as water and the inventory is too high. Although the supply side declines, it may be able to alleviate the corresponding inventory pressure, but it may not be enough in the short term. It is expected that polyester filament yarn may continue its weak finishing trend in the near future.

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Author: clsrich