Nowadays, the new cotton market is like this: there are not enough machines to pick, the factory cannot be moved, it is difficult to find a car, and the way out is blocked. They are interlocking and uncomfortable, forming a short-term blockage. Here is a brief summary based on the latest understanding of the current market situation. The analysis in this article only expresses concerns about the current phenomenon and what may happen in the future, but there is no emotional incitement. Said, there is always something to think about outside the whirlpool. If there is anything inappropriate, you can give feedback at any time.
Picking is relatively normal, but cross-regional operations are still difficult.
At present, the picking progress in northern Xinjiang is roughly over half, and cotton picking by machines in southern Xinjiang has begun to pick, and the cotton picking machines are becoming tense. Picking work within the same area is relatively normal, but there may be restrictions across regions, especially when cotton picking machines span from northern Xinjiang to southern Xinjiang. According to feedback from a farmer in southern Xinjiang, the packaging cotton pickers, commonly known as “egg roll cotton”, are a little nervous now, and the loose cotton pickers are already in place and starting to pick. Moreover, the humidity is high in the morning and evening, and the moisture content of cotton is a bit high. There are also requirements for picking time to prevent excessive cotton moisture from affecting the quality. This will also affect the picking progress. However, if the cotton is not picked in time, it may fall to the ground and affect the inclusion of impurities. Therefore, For cotton farmers, even if they can’t sell it now, being able to pick it in time is a sure thing and a guarantee.
Beijiang’s acquisitions have begun to “involve” again, relying entirely on “blind boxes”?
The current epidemic prevention and control situation is still severe. Some regions have adjusted their control levels according to the situation, and the progress of acquisitions continues to slow down. It is understood that the amount of seed cotton in most factory areas is far less than the level of the same period last year. In the early stages of the scale opening, due to farmers and cotton ginning mills testing each other, purchases were sporadic. As the picking volume increased, some farmers chose to hand it over to the factory first and then negotiate the price. Their high expectations for the previous purchase price have somewhat cooled down. It seems that low prices have gradually been accepted. However, the purchase price of machine-picked cotton in the northern Xinjiang region has been raised again in the past two days. According to statistics from this website, the average price on the 13th has reached 6.0 yuan/kg in the region, and the high purchase price has exceeded 6 yuan/kg, reaching 6.1-6.2 yuan. /Kilogram or so. So, as some people think, the purchase price will continue to rise, and the cotton ginning factory will return to the “crazy” last year?
In fact, the current cotton season of the new and old seasons is at the alternation stage, coupled with the tight cotton inventory in mainland warehouses, and after the epidemic control has been upgraded, cotton transportation out of Xinjiang has been affected, multiple verification points in the mainland have suspended verification, and the progress of new cotton acquisition, processing and warehousing is slower than last year. During the same period, supply exceeded demand in the short term, and the sales price of lint cotton jumped sharply. The basis difference of old cotton is currently as high as 2,600 yuan/ton, and the basis difference of double 28 new cotton pre-sales is also around 700 yuan/ton. In addition, the price of Zheng cotton has appeared in the past two days. After a wave of rise, when there is still profit margin, we can take advantage of this opportunity to collect and sell quickly, which has led to a “blind box” sales method. There are two main types. One is to process and sell as much as you charge. How much? One is pre-sale first and then purchase, processing and delivery. Therefore, if you want to harvest some seed cotton when more than half of the picking is done, you can only choose to increase the purchase price of seed cotton appropriately. However, the ginner will not rashly raise the price significantly. According to a rough calculation, if the purchase price of seed cotton is 6.4 yuan/kg, the cotton seed price will be 6.4 yuan/kg. 2.9 yuan/kg, 37 clothing points, 1,100 processing fees, and 10% loss. The converted lint cost is 14,243 yuan/ton. The profit margin from the current new cotton double 28 pre-sale price has narrowed significantly. Even though cotton seems to be “hot” now, due to the current blockage in the intermediate links, once the supply problem is cleared and the supply problem is solved, it may put some pressure on the existing price, and the purchase price of seed cotton will continue to increase. In addition, the cotton seed is now transported to Difficulties have also arisen in the mainland. Mainland oil and fat factories have canceled orders for Xinjiang cottonseed, so cottonseed prices may also be at risk of falling. Multiple force majeure factors will lead to an increase in high-cost risks for enterprises. On top of that, there is still downward pressure on Zheng cotton. Therefore, seed cotton The acquisition price may not rise all the way. According to cost calculation, 6.5 may be the critical point.
But there is still a possibility that once the intermediate links are smooth, a large amount of cotton is concentrated on the market, and ginners begin to purchase, process and complete delivery. Will the high degree of concentration cause the purchase price to rise again? However, at this time, what happens in Xinjiang? How many cotton ginners can have the confidence to continue raising prices to grab harvests?
Restricted movement and problems in transportation
Since the epidemic has rebounded in many places in China and the degree of regional control is different, not only is it difficult to get out of Xinjiang, but even if it is shipped by rail, how can we smoothly transport lint cotton to the warehouse and onto the platform in Xinjiang? A headache for flower factories. There are also some ginneries that have to slow down their processing progress due to insufficient barcode paper. The movement of people and vehicles in the area is restricted, which has indeed caused congestion in all aspects of picking, purchasing, and processing. To sum up, this year’s cotton people need to have a character that can endure loneliness, and at the same time have a heart of steel. But in a word, under the seemingly prosperous scene, you still need to make a calm judgment and control the risk points. Farmers must also have a strong sense of balance in their minds. They cannot hoard cotton in anticipation of a temporary rise. Selling at the right time is the best strategy.