Introduction: Entering September, PTA processing fees exceeded the level of 1,000 yuan. At present, the operating rate of PTA enterprises remains at a low level, the operating rate of downstream polyester and weaving has rebounded, the marginal supply and demand of PTA has improved, and the market has been significantly destocked.
PTA operating rate remains low
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
Entering September, the operating rate of domestic PTA remained at a low level, with the average operating rate from the 1st to the 20th being about 70.40%, and the loss was about 1 million tons. Recently, Sichuan Energy Investment’s 1 million-ton unit was temporarily shut down due to a malfunction on September 12 and restarted on September 14. The 6.6-million-ton unit of Yisheng New Materials was affected by the typhoon, and its load dropped to 50% on September 13, and on the 18th It has recovered to 80%; the annual inspection of the 650,000-ton unit of Yizheng Chemical Fiber will begin on September 7, which is expected to take 20 days. Xinjiang Zhongtai’s 1.2 million-ton unit is scheduled to start shutting down for maintenance on September 20 and restart in late October, which is expected to take about 40 days. As of now, the operating rate of domestic PTA remains at 72.31%, and the overall supply pressure is not great.
PTA continues the de-stocking pattern
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
As of September 15, Jinlianchuang statistics show that PTA social inventory is about 1.9 million tons, a decrease of 90,000 tons from last week. Recently, the operating rate of PTA has remained at a low level, and the spot supply is tight; however, the downstream polyester production and weaving operations have rebounded, which has digested raw material inventory to a certain extent. Therefore, PTA inventory maintains a destocking rhythm this week.
In the later period (September 16th to September 22nd), it is understood that the load reduction and maintenance of PTA factories are still concentrated, the operating rate is still not high, and the supply is still tight. However, under the Golden-Jiu small peak season, the downstream demand performance is acceptable , polyester production and sales have rebounded, which has provided support to the PTA market. It is expected that PTA inventory may remain slightly destocked next week.
Polyester and weaving operating rates rebound
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
In the first half of the “Golden Nine”, the polyester market basically maintained its previous trend and did not show significant improvement. Terminal factories mainly purchase goods according to their immediate needs, while weaving factories mainly base their production on sales. Around the middle of the year, after some orders are placed in batches, purchasing demand picks up. Therefore, many manufacturers stock up a certain amount of goods. It is understood that the current production orders are mainly for thick fabrics such as Chinese cotton cloth and sweatshirt cloth, and most of them are autumn and winter orders. Overall, after entering the peak season, the terminal market has improved. Although orders have continued, they are still worse than in previous peak seasons. The operation of terminal weaving factory equipment is relatively differentiated. Some large factories receive a large number of orders, some orders have urgent delivery dates, the startup load is high, and production has improved significantly. To a certain extent, it supports the price of raw material PTA.
PTA processing fee of 1,000 yuan consolidates at high level
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
Oil prices and PX prices fluctuated, PTA cost pressures have eased, PTA futures basis continued to be strong, and corporate processing fees continued to be at high levels. In September, PTA processing fees fluctuated within a range of 800-1,100 yuan/ton, and corporate profits The theoretical numerical performance is optimistic. As of September 19, based on the current exchange rate of 6.9396, the processing difference between PTA spot and PX spot remained at 959 yuan/ton.
Judging from the current market, international oil prices are fluctuating, logistics factors affect PX shipping, and indirectly affect the load of some PTA units, so the spot basis is firm. Recently, PTA maintenance and production reduction equipment are still concentrated, and spot liquidity is still tight. In the short term, PTA will continue to destock. At the same time, the production and sales of polyester end have rebounded temporarily, and the load of major polyester manufacturers will gradually increase. The consumption of PTA will increase, and the supply and demand of PTA will continue. With good margins, it is difficult for the market to fall sharply. However, the second half of the year is still the period when new PTA equipment is put into operation. If the new equipment is put into operation as planned, and the supply volume increases significantly by then, PTA processing fees may be difficult to maintain at a high level.
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