On the evening of September 15, the offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fell below the “7” mark. After more than two years, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has once again entered the “7” era. On September 16, the RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar also fell below the “7” integer mark in the onshore market, reaching as low as 7.0188, continuing to hit a new low in more than two years.
Some experts believe that moderate depreciation of the RMB exchange rate is beneficial to exports and will enhance the competitiveness of China’s export products to a certain extent. However, for the RMB exchange rate to “break 7”, some market views are worried that it will have adverse effects in some aspects. For example, depreciation expectations may intensify capital outflows; exchange rate depreciation will lead to an increase in the cost of raw material imports, intensify imported inflation pressure, and squeeze the profits of downstream industries; increase the pressure on foreign debt repayment of principal and interest; form constraints on domestic monetary policy, and the policy space for stabilizing growth will be limited. Limited to wait.
Tan Yaling, president and chief economist of the China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute, believes that the current depreciation of the RMB is not enough to enable foreign trade export companies to tide over the difficulties. “The RMB appreciation previously reached 6.3, which has exceeded the cost line for companies to make profits. In addition, these two In 2017, with the continuous rise in commodity raw material prices, coupled with rising shipping prices and rising labor costs, orders dropped sharply, which was particularly difficult for small and medium-sized enterprises.”
Our export report card this year is very beautiful
But why do many foreign trade people not have obvious feelings about the peak season?
It should be noted that a large part of the increase in export volume comes from the rising tide of overseas price increases, rather than an increase in sales; on the other hand, the products currently selling hot orders are mainly concentrated in the automobile and high-tech industries. The feeling of small enterprises and labor-intensive enterprises is not obvious.
The pressures faced by more foreign traders mainly include the following aspects.
1. The cost of imports from many countries has increased, and it is not just the RMB that has depreciated.
The fundamental reason for this wave of depreciation of the RMB is that the US dollar is too strong. In other words, it was harvested by the strong dollar. Since the beginning of this year, the euro has depreciated by 15% against the US dollar, the British pound has fallen by 11%, the Japanese yen has fallen by more than 18%, the Korean won has also fallen by 11%, the Turkish lira has depreciated by about 26%, and the Egyptian pound has fallen to a record low… that is to say , our exporter hasn’t raised the price yet, and the buyer has lost more than 10% of the profit directly in the exchange rate! Looking directly at the export data, WIND’s “Monthly Growth Rate of Exports to Major Trading Partners” table intuitively reflects the trend:
It can be seen that my country’s exports to India, Brazil, the European Union, Japan, South Korea and even the United States slowed down in August.
2. High overseas inflation + high inventories weaken purchasing demand
As the global supply chain fell into extreme chaos last year, many importers rushed to replenish goods when they were out of stock. However, the long shipping schedule caused them to miss the best sales time, and ended up accumulating a large amount of inventory. Reduced consumption and misjudgments in overseas markets have caused sales of goods such as clothes, home appliances, household items, and kitchen supplies to decline sharply. Walmart canceled billions of orders; Target canceled more than $1.5 billion in orders and said it would take “necessary” actions, including price cuts and order cancellations. Both Walmart and Target are forcing some suppliers to absorb rising costs.
3. Rising raw material import costs and loss of orders to varying degrees
When it was approaching breaking “7”, according to media surveys, textile export companies did not benefit from the depreciation of the exchange rate. Due to the damage caused by overseas epidemics to overseas industrial chains, although China’s textile exports have increased this year, more of them are exported finished products, while the number of directly exported fabrics has decreased. Therefore, textile export companies have not benefited from the exchange rate dividend. On the other hand, due to the depreciation of the exchange rate, the price of imported raw materials will increase. Although most polyester yarns are currently produced in China, the upstream raw materials, whether crude oil at the forefront or PX necessary for the production of PTA, still need to be imported in large quantities. The prices of these raw materials have increased due to the depreciation of the exchange rate. Therefore, as the price of raw materials increases, the price of polyester yarn also rises, and the costs of downstream textile enterprises also increase.
On the contrary, Chinese export companies are facing competitive pressure from Southeast Asian manufacturing. The story of this boss Chang was once on the hot search, because this year he is not an exception.
my country’s traditional labor-intensive export enterprises such as textiles, hardware, and electronics have experienced varying degrees of order losses, and some orders have been transferred to overseas manufacturers in Southeast Asia and other countries. Now is the traditional “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” peak shipping season for foreign trade. However, when chatting with foreign trade friends, those who have just entered the industry will say that this is the “most difficult year” since they started working in the industry. There are also many who have experienced the financial crisis. The old foreign trader advised not to be anxious. In the off-season, it is more necessary to improve yourself, accumulate energy, and wait for the opportunity to take off.