According to CNN, Iran has officially given up on a key “red line” requirement that is a major obstacle to restarting the Iran nuclear deal.
On August 19, local time, a senior U.S. government official revealed that Iran had given up on asking the United States to remove its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from the list of terrorist organizations designated by the U.S. government during negotiations to restore the Iran nuclear agreement. Additionally, the Iranians dropped their demands to delist several companies linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
A few days ago, Iranian Foreign Minister Abdullahiyan said that the country needs to ensure that its red lines are respected and economic interests are guaranteed before it can take the next steps to restore the Iran nuclear agreement. If the United States “shows flexibility,” a consensus on the Iran nuclear deal can be reached in the next few days.
In November 2018, after the United States resumed sanctions on Iran, Iran’s average annual crude oil export volume dropped sharply from 1,850,000 barrels/day in 2018 to 651,000 barrels/day in 2019, a year-on-year decrease of 64.80%. Iran’s average monthly crude oil output It also dropped from the highest of 3,823,000 barrels/day in 2018 to the lowest of 2,093,000 barrels/day in 2019, a year-on-year decrease of 45.25%.
Before the U.S. sanctions, Iran’s crude oil production accounted for 11%-12% of OPEC’s share. After the sanctions, crude oil production declined from 2019 to 2020, accounting for 7%-8%. In 2021, crude oil production increased, accounting for The ratio is around 9%. In June 2022, Iran’s crude oil production was 2,569 thousand barrels/day, and OPEC’s crude oil production was 28,716 thousand barrels/day. Iran’s crude oil production accounted for 8.95% of OPEC’s production in the same period.
Wang Jingtian of Bank of China Securities pointed out that if the Iran nuclear agreement is reached, the lifting of Iranian crude oil export restrictions will be detrimental to oil prices and beneficial to oil transportation. On August 18, the price of COSCO SHIPPING Energy’s A-shares hit a new high since 2009, with a maximum of 15.76 yuan per share.
CITIC Securities pointed out that from the production side, according to OPEC monthly report data, Iran’s crude oil production in July was 2.55 million barrels/day. Before sanctions, Iran’s crude oil production was 3.8 million barrels/day. If the agreement is implemented, the production side will be 1.25 million barrels/day. The room for growth is expected to accelerate the inflection point of replenishment. As winter approaches and natural gas prices are at high levels, the EU may use crude oil as a substitute, further increasing oil transportation demand.
Bank of China Securities pointed out that if sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports are lifted, it will bring an increase of 2% to 3% to OPEC production, crude oil supply will be significantly improved, and oil transportation demand will increase accordingly.