Ethylene glycol follows the rebound, leading the polyester chain

Last week, polyester followed the oscillation of international oil prices at the cost end and weakened. Commodities generally showed a recovery trend on Friday night. Ethylene glyc…

Last week, polyester followed the oscillation of international oil prices at the cost end and weakened. Commodities generally showed a recovery trend on Friday night. Ethylene glycol followed suit and rebounded, leading the gains on the 22nd, closing at 3,981 yuan. Staple fiber rose 0.83%, and PTA turned green.

Recently, affected by the expected increase in supply from Zhejiang Petrochemical and Malaysian Petroleum Equipment, the ethylene glycol market sentiment has been weak. However, there are still many coal chemical industry overhauls. In late August, Xinjiang Tianye, Rongxin, Xinhang Energy, Tongliao Jinmei and other coal companies All manufacturing companies have maintenance plans. At the same time, the import data shows that the recent import volume is not high, with a sharp decline from the previous month. However, with such a contraction on the supply side, port inventory has not yet been depleted. There will also be many new ethylene glycol units put into production in the future, and there are expectations for further deterioration in the production capacity pattern.

Affected by power cuts in some areas, the polyester load fell during the week. Under the combined influence of high temperature weather and power cuts, the start-up remained at a low level. The start-up of texturing, looms, and printing and dyeing were all less than 50%. Raw material prices were weak during the week, terminal stockings were cautious, and polyester production and sales were sluggish. Judging from the orders, the peak season has not yet started, with small orders and bulk orders being the main ones. The inventory pressure in the industrial chain is still high, and the inventory of weaving companies is mostly more than one month old.

On the PTA supply side, Fuhai Chuang’s 4.5 million-ton PTA device restarted during the week, and the 1 million-ton PTA device was temporarily shut down due to power restrictions in Sichuan. By Thursday, the load was adjusted to nearly 70%. With both px and pta on the spot side being tight, prices have been firm in recent months. Due to the pressure to put into production in the fourth quarter, the main 01 contract weakened, resulting in stronger monthly spreads and basis spreads. At present, PTA spot processing fees are recovering rapidly. Under the relatively high processing fees, there will be a strong willingness to increase the burden of PTA later-stage equipment. At the same time, several large integrated units will be put into operation in the fourth quarter, and the supply is expected to rebound significantly. Zheshang Futures researcher Zhu Lihang believes that due to weak demand and pressure to put into production, PTA in the fourth quarter may still be based on valuation compression logic.

In the early stage, the short fiber operating rate rebounded, the short fiber output increased, and the PTA fell sharply. In the absence of significant improvement in downstream demand, the market has strong pessimistic expectations for short fiber futures. Since May, the short fiber operating rate has continued to rebound and is close to the normal operating level in previous years. Then there is not much room for further recovery. Last week, boosted by rising costs and cotton, quotations from short fiber factories once showed an upward trend. However, downstream supply was more resistant to the increase, and the market lacked substantial driving force. Except for urgent purchases, large-order stocking was rare. As the cotton market plummeted, the main staple fiber stocks came under pressure. Pay attention to the status of downstream orders before and after the end of the month.

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Author: clsrich