As of August 5, the PTA spot market price dropped from 5,498 yuan/ton at the end of July to 5,318 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 180 yuan/read, a decrease of -3.27%; from the futures market, PTA2109 The closing price of contract futures fell from 5512 yuan/ton to 5172 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 340 yuan/ton, or -6.17%. Next we will analyze the main factors affecting the price drop of PTA:
From the upstream cost side, from the end of the month to the present, due to the lack of clear news guidance in the market, Tight oil supply and the global spread of Delta have dragged down oil demand, while the U.S. ISM manufacturing index in July and China’s Caixin PMI index in July were lower than expected, coupled with the accelerated spread of the Delta virus in China, Brazil, South Africa and other countries, the global new crown epidemic The number of confirmed cases of the epidemic has reached 200 million. Many places in China have advocated the policy of not going out unless necessary, which has affected oil demand. In addition, the OPEC+ oil-producing countries alliance, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, significantly increased oil production in July. On August 5, Iran’s new leadership Iran is about to take power, and Iran’s return to the oil market is full of variables. Superimposed EIA inventory data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 3.627 million barrels, the largest increase since March 5. The United States announced that ADP employment increased by 330,000 in July, the highest increase in February. A new low since then, the market is currently enveloped in pessimism. Crude oil rose first and then fell this week. Crude oil fell for three consecutive days, dragging down the PTA market mentality. From the perspective of direct raw material PX, PX fluctuated slightly this week, and the PX-NAP price difference rose slightly, which is acceptable for the PTA market. From the perspective of PTA’s own supply, the current spot circulation of PTA in some areas is still tight. However, due to the concentrated delivery after the typhoon, the overall market is insufficient to buy. In addition, the Fuhai Chuang 4.5 million ton device recently restarted on August 5, and the device restarted on July 27. Entering maintenance status on August 1st; Yisheng New Materials’ 3.6 million ton device will be shut down on the evening of August 1st and will be restarted on the evening of August 4th. On-site supply will increase slightly. Although PTA’s own processing fee has been slightly reduced from 878 yuan/ton to 793 yuan/ton, it has remained high overall, which has inhibited the upward trend of the PTA market. From the perspective of PTA downstream demand, although the polyester production start-up remains around 87.54%, the demand for PTA is maintained, but the terminal market transactions are weak and the demand for polyester is relatively average. The textile market outlook is facing severe epidemic situation, skyrocketing sea freight, trade friction, etc. Under the negative influence, the trend is not optimistic yet. Overall, the decline in crude oil has restrained the PTA market mentality, coupled with the obstacles of the short-term restart of PTA equipment and high processing fees, the price has fallen. However, PTA’s own fundamental performance is acceptable, and inventory depletion will still support PTA prices. Therefore, PTA prices will rise in the short term. Although prices fell slightly, the extent of the decline was limited.
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