Affected by the epidemic last week, cotton prices experienced a brief correction. Even if the short-term decline was large, the decline could eventually be recovered before the market closed. It can be seen that the support point below is very strong, the market expectations for the market outlook are basically consistent, and the probability of cotton prices rising is less than the probability of falling.
Today is the last trading day of this week, and the market performance is very strong. The domestic epidemic situation continues to ferment, and it seems to have a limited impact on the market. The author speculates that it may be mid-to-high prices in various parts of the country. With the strict measures taken in risk areas and our rich experience in fighting the epidemic, it is expected that the raging Delta virus will be contained soon.
Of course, the market can be so strong without the support of fundamentals. According to the current situation, downstream cotton yarn orders are still good, and companies continue to produce at full capacity. .
From abroad, although the number of confirmed cases of epidemic infection has rebounded sharply, prevention and control measures are worrying. The United States has also hinted that it will not adopt nationwide blockade measures. Since Delta virus is more virulent and contagious, the worsening situation of the epidemic will be difficult to reverse in the short term. In the future, the cotton spinning industry will usher in the traditional peak season, and the transfer of foreign orders to China will continue. Previously, the outside world was worried about whether foreign orders would return as the global epidemic situation improves. Now they can relax their mentality. China’s status as the global supply chain center will not change.
From a technical point of view, today’s market has shown that a large amount of funds have gradually entered the main contract. First, there is a need to move positions. After all, the CF2109 contract is about to expire, and both long and short sides The position needs to be transferred out of the market to the CF2201 contract; secondly, CF2201 will become a new battlefield. The panic caused by the early epidemic prompted a short-term correction in the market, but the impact was limited. After the adjustment, positions continued to increase.
The reserve cotton reserve price continues to increase, and market bidding enthusiasm remains unabated. The current reserve cotton reserve price and futures and spot prices both show signs of upward resonance, and there is a high probability that the future will We must continue to walk together. As long as futures prices continue to rise, it will be difficult to untie the trapped resources, cotton spot resources will not be released, and reserve cotton will still be favored.
Now the focus of the market is on the purchase of seed cotton. The market expects the opening price to be higher, and rush to harvest is also a high probability event. If the market wishes, the cotton price will It will continue to hit new highs.
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