PTA prices have continued to remain high recently. Cost fluctuations continued to adjust at high levels. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories and refined oil inventories both fell more than expected. The summer travel peak continued to bring benefits, and oil prices were supported by demand. However, the Delta mutant strain suppressed price increases. The price of raw material PX has moved up within a narrow range, which has certain positive support for TA.
The supply and demand of PTA is relatively good. Due to the impact of typhoon weather, the port was closed, and some equipment reduced load and stopped, causing PTA spot liquidity to continue to be tight. However, with the improvement of the typhoon, ports have gradually returned to normal, and PTA has been arriving intensively, resulting in a slight weakening of the spot basis. So far, the PTA basis offer for the 09 contract has a premium of around 15 yuan/ton. The comprehensive load of polyester fluctuates around 90%. Among them, Hengyi Hengming’s new 300,000 tons/year equipment was put into operation. The production capacity base of the domestic polyester industry further increased. However, due to the impact of typhoon “fireworks” and poor profitability, some polyester factories Production reduction and maintenance, such as Tiansheng, Ancient Towpath, Sanfangxiang, Desai, etc. On the whole, although demand fell within a narrow range, it still maintained rigid support. At the same time, due to PTA factory maintenance, supply was low. Therefore, PTA prices continued to adjust at a high level in anticipation of destocking.
Source: Longzhong Information
Market outlook:
Source: Longzhong Information
At present, there is no obvious fluctuation in international crude oil. Although there is a small upward trend, the epidemic situation in many places around the world Aggravation may inhibit the upward amplitude, and the overall or high adjustment will be the main one. The raw material PX is relatively stable. Although there are expectations of accumulation of inventory, the current PX-N price difference is still at a relatively optimistic level, which supports the price of PTA to a certain extent.
It is expected that the short-term PTA market will continue to adjust at a high level. There are currently no obvious negatives on the cost side, maintaining solid support for PTA. From the perspective of supply and demand structure, short-term PTA supply and demand are still expected to be destocked. In addition, mainstream factories continue to reduce August contract supply, and the spot market is still mainly tight. With the expectation of destocking of supply and demand, PTA is expected to continue to adjust at a high level. </p
